Industry Watch · June 17, 2026

Space: The Next Trillion-Dollar Industry… Or The Next Money Pit?

Space is one of the most exciting industries on the planet. It’s also one of the easiest industries for investors to get carried away with. Before we talk about moon bases and asteroid mining, let’s answer a simpler question: Can space companies actually make money? With SpaceX going IPO this week, it becomes really important to understand this industry. How Big Is The Industry? The global space economy is already worth over $600 billion and could approach $1.8 trillion by 2035 . Sounds impressive. But here’s the catch: Most of that revenue isn’t coming from rockets. It’s coming from services enabled by satellites. Where Is The Money Today? Satellite Services GPS Internet Communications Weather forecasting Earth observation This is where most of the industry’s revenue comes from. Launch Services Companies pay to launch satellites into orbit. Sounds lucrative. However, launch is becoming a commodity. Just as airlines move lots of people but don’t always make lots of money, launch companies may face constant pricing pressure. Defense Governments spend billions on: Missile tracking Surveillance Secure communications For many space companies, defense contracts are what keep the lights on. Who Are The Major Players? Launch SpaceX Blue Origin Rocket Lab Defense Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman RTX Satellite Networks Starlink Iridium SES How Does SpaceX Make Money? Most people think SpaceX survives because of rockets. Not really. The more interesting business is Starlink . Starlink sells internet subscriptions to: Homes Businesses Airlines Ships Governments Recurring subscription revenue is generally far more attractive than one-time launches. This is why many investors believe Starlink could eventually be worth more than the rocket business itself. The Bull Case Space could become critical infrastructure. Over the next decade we may see: Global broadband coverage Better navigation and logistics AI-powered Earth observation Growing defense spending If these trends continue, the industry could grow substantially. The Bear Case This is where investors should pay attention. 1. Many Space Companies Don’t Make Money A surprising number of space startups generate very little revenue relative to the capital they consume. Many have gone public before proving sustainable business models. 2. Launch May Become A Commodity The industry loves talking about rockets. Customers care about cost. If launch prices keep falling, profits may not grow as quickly as launch volume. 3. Space Is Extremely Capital Intensive Building: Rockets Satellites Ground stations requires enormous investment. Many companies will likely need repeated fundraising rounds before becoming profitable. 4. Governments Matter A Lot Defense and government contracts drive a significant portion of industry spending. Changes in budgets or political priorities can materially affect growth. 5. Many “Future Opportunities” Are Still Science Projects Investors often hear about: Moon mining Space solar power Asteroid mining The reality: Most of these opportunities remain decades away and may never become economically viable. Industries That May Benefit Even if some space companies struggle, related industries could benefit. Potential winners include: Semiconductors AI Cybersecurity Telecommunications Defense contractors Robotics History shows that infrastructure builders don’t always capture the most value. Sometimes the businesses built on top of the infrastructure become the biggest winners. Final Thought The space industry is not one thing. There are really two separate bets: Bet #1: Space Infrastructure Satellites Communications Defense Navigation This is already a real business generating hundreds of billions of dollars. Bet #2: The Sci-Fi Future Moon bases Asteroid mining Space manufacturing This makes for great headlines, but the economics remain largely unproven. Investors should be careful not to confuse the two. The

From The BruhCode Blog on Stockbruh. Educational content only — not financial advice.